The Toronto Raptors are trying to pull off a roster transition without hitting rock bottom, reshaping their entire roster around Scottie Barnes and leaping back up into the playoff mix as early as this next season. That may not be the best approach for them to make, especially in a league where so many other teams are moving in that direction, but every signal from the front office is that they are trying to have their cake and eat it too.
That makes this summer a crucial one for flipping the roster. This past season saw Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby sent to new teams and key players like Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Bruce Brown brought on board. Now the next step is to continue revolving the roster around the new core and find the right pieces to add. That process will involve the draft and the trade market, but a key moment for this team will be how it approaches free agency.
The Toronto Raptors must avoid making some blatant free agency mistakes that could come back to haunt them
Teams trying to accelerate a rebuild are notorious for making massive errors in free agency, investing in the wrong players or overpaying for low-upside options. Ask the Toronto Raptors how they feel about signing DeMarre Carroll, or handing Otto Porter Jr. a guaranteed deal only to see him hit by injury after injury. How a team manages free agency can make or break them.
Let’s look at three mistakes that the Raptors must avoid making in free agency this summer as they seek to further improve the roster, mistakes that could come back to haunt them down the road as they continue to build a sustain the next great Toronto team.
No. 1: Chase big names in Free Agency
The Toronto Raptors can open up a fair amount of cap space this summer, especially if they decline Bruce Brown’s team option. That could embolden them to target some of the big names in free agency, to “swing for the fences” with their cap space. From one angle, that’s not a terrible idea; ultimately the Raptors need a Top-15 player to compete for a title, and ideally two of them.
Using their cap space this summer to do so is so unlikely as to border on the fantastical, however. They don’t have enough cap space to chase a max-level free agent like Paul George on the market, so while that pipe dream is an exciting one it’s not a realistic one. Perhaps they could clear enough space to make a run at OG Anunoby or James Harden, but Anunoby’s market is likely to be too high and Harden would be a terrible fit in addition to being expensive.
There is another tier of players that is likely the most tempting for the Raptors and that they must avoid at all costs, and those are former stars who still have a little left in the tank but are almost certainly going to be overpaid based on name recognition.
Old friend DeMar DeRozan is one of those names, and while they could realistically carve out the cap space to sign him, it would be an extremely poor investment for a young team trying to build a long-term core; DeRozan will turn 35 years old before the start of next season, will demand touches and take them away from RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, and won’t help them much at all in building their defensive identity.
Using their cap space this summer to do so is so unlikely as to border on the fantastical, however. They don’t have enough cap space to chase a max-level free agent like Paul George on the market, so while that pipe dream is an exciting one it’s not a realistic one. Perhaps they could clear enough space to make a run at OG Anunoby or James Harden, but Anunoby’s market is likely to be too high and Harden would be a terrible fit in addition to being expensive.
There is another tier of players that is likely the most tempting for the Raptors and that they must avoid at all costs, and those are former stars who still have a little left in the tank but are almost certainly going to be overpaid based on name recognition.
Old friend DeMar DeRozan is one of those names, and while they could realistically carve out the cap space to sign him, it would be an extremely poor investment for a young team trying to build a long-term core; DeRozan will turn 35 years old before the start of next season, will demand touches and take them away from RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, and won’t help them much at all in building their defensive identity.
No. 2: Overvalue Cap Space
The allure of cap space is strong. It’s a blank canvas on which you can paint nearly any future. Could LeBron James sign at a discount if Toronto drafts Bronny James, christening “LeBronto” for real? What if the Raptors re-signed Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby and managed to add picks and players for renting them out? Could Paul George lead the Raptors back to the NBA Finals?
In reality, however, for a team like the Toronto Raptors cap space is an overrated team-building tool. For all that Toronto is a large, cosmopolitan city, most NBA players don’t particularly like the reality of living outside of the United States and needing to go through customs each time that they fly. The Raptors were also a losing team last year; for a “less valued” market to have a shot in free agency they need sustained excellence.
Even knowing that, there is the temptation to protect cap space at all costs, whether that’s this summer or looking ahead to future summers. The Philadelphia 76ers executed a plan to have max-level cap space open this summer and will reasonably go star-hunting. The Detroit Pistons also have a lot of cap space but they are merely hunting for a path to 30 wins. Not all cap space is created equal.
In negotiating with Immanuel Quickley, Toronto may be tempted to value future cap space (or even present space) and walk away from negotiations. They could also make or not make other moves in order to try and maximize their cap space. That flexibility could be useful but it’s not the ultimate goal, and the work the Raptors do in the draft, via trade and in negotiating with their own players is much more valuable than having cap space and pitching available free agents.
No. 3: “Reward” the team’s own free agents
The Toronto Raptors have a track record of looking at its own players and seeing the 1992 Dream Team. They certainly waited too long and negotiated too hard with their last core of players, letting Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet walk in free agency and selling Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby at a discount because they didn’t move at the peak of their value.
That same love of internal players is likely to come to play again this summer, and the Raptors need to work not to let it unduly influence their decision-making. Immanuel Quickley is an extremely talented player and could develop into an All-Star; that continued growth is hardly a lock, however, and paying Quickley like an established star would be an unnecessary concession. The Raptors have a lot of leverage given that Quickley is a restricted free agent.
The danger is greater with Gary Trent Jr., an unrestricted free agent who should be on the way out. He doesn’t mvoe the needle as a starter, the Raptors have drafted his replacement in Gradey Dick, and as they get expensive paying Trent a mid-range salary is an unnecessary expense.
Yet Trent has also been on the team for years and the front office will be tempted to overvalue him in negotiations, offering him a contract high enough to convince him to stay, when they should be assuming he leaves unless he’s available at a steep discount.
The Toronto Raptors have a lot of options this offseason, but that also means there are a lot of potential pitfalls. They need to take a measured approach to free agency and not make one of these egregious mistakes that could cause them pain down the road.
