Just when it looked like the Philadelphia Phillies were coming out of their slump last week, they slipped right back into their losing ways with three straight losses to the Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s been a sight all too common recently, and things are starting to get dicey at the top of the National League standings.
After their thankfully concluded 4-6 West Coast road trip, the Phillies have a 69-49 record. They still have a commanding lead in the NL East, at 7.0 games over the just-as-horrid Atlanta Braves, but things aren’t as rosy in Phillie-land as the division standings would have you think.
Since sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers before the All-Star break, the Phillies are 8-17. On that date, July 11, they held a 6.5-game lead over the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers sat 7.5 games behind the Phillies.
Now, after a month of mostly dreadful baseball, they have seen their lead evaporate. The Dodgers have overtaken them by 0.5 games for the best record in the NL, while the Brewers are 2.0 games behind.
3 glaring problems the Phillies need to fix before it’s too late
The season isn’t over by any means. The division is still theirs to lose, and they’re in a great position to make the playoffs for the third straight year. But if the Phillies want the bye through the Wild Card rounds when the postseason rolls around, there are some areas they need to clean up before it’s too late.
“We’re not playing our best baseball right now,” Bryce Harper said after Sunday’s 12-5 loss, per MLB.com’s Patrick Brown. “We just have to keep going, understand we have a long season to go, and we just have to keep playing our game.”
No joke they’re not playing their best baseball.
From hitting to pitching, the Phillies have shown some glaring weaknesses over the last month, compared to the first three and half months of the season. Here are some of the biggest problems they’ve been having that they will need to address in order to pull themselves out of their slump.
The Phillies’ offense has to fix its RISP problem
Let’s start with the offense. But where to begin?
After scoring the third-most runs in MLB through July 11, with 461 (4.95 runs/game), the Phillies’ bats have been inconsistent, dropping to 17th with 111 (4.44 runs/game) since then.
Yes, their overall batting average has dropped from .260 to .237, but it’s their inability to hit with runners in scoring position that is really hurting them.
Before the slump, Phillies hitters hit .270 with runners on second and/or third base. Since July 12, that average has plummeted to .239. Are they squeezing the bat a little tighter, trying to do more as things fall apart? Is it a bad approach? Bad luck? It’s probably a little bit of everything.
In high-leverage situations, they were hitting .244 pre-slump. That’s down to .192 (25th overall) over the last month.
Yikes.
The problems with runners in scoring position were more apparent than ever in the three losses to the Diamondbacks over the weekend. They went 0-for-12 combined on Friday and Saturday, and a slightly better 3-for-7 in Sunday’s demoralizing defeat. Even in their 6-4 win on Thursday, they went 4-for-15.
“It all gets back to fundamentals,” manager Rob Thomson said on Saturday about hitting with runners in scoring position, per Brown. “You have to be able to use the field, and you have to make contact and we’re not doing that right now. We’re chasing a little bit.”
The Phillies’ bullpen has to fix its problem with runners on base
Now let’s turn to the mound, where things have been ugly out of the bullpen lately. Through July 11, the Phillies bullpen had the fourth-best ERA in the majors at 3.32, and it wasn’t by luck or fluke — they were downright dominant.
The advanced pitching metrics agreed. Phillies relievers boasted the best FIP (3.12), xFIP (3.49) and SIERA (3.20). If anything, their ERA should have been lower.
And now?
The struggling bullpen has an MLB-worst 7.00 ERA since July 12. The relievers have only blown three saves, but that’s an indication of how many leads they have blown well before the ninth inning, with a ghastly 1-7 record.
The bullpen’s strikeout rate has dropped from 26.9 percent to 24.5 percent over the last month. That may not seem like much, but the walk rate has also jumped from 7.6 percent to 10.6 percent, which is a little alarming.
One of the biggest problems stemming from this is recording outs with runners on base, or, rather, not recording outs with runners on base. Phillies relievers stymied opposing hitters with runners on through the first half, holding them to a .243 batting average. That has jumped to .299 since July 12.
Then there’s the strand rate. Whether their own or inherited runners, Phillies relievers had a 10th-ranked 72.2 percent rate before the recent slide. During the skid, it has dropped to the third-worst at 62.7 percent.
The bullpen needs to return to the dominant form from the first three months: more strikeouts, fewer walks and leaving those runners on base.
The Phillies’ starting rotation needs to fix its strikeout rate
As for the starting rotation, things haven’t gone much better than the bullpen.
Phillies starters led the majors with a .222 opponent batting average through July 11. Now hitters have been batting .285, which is the third-worst mark. With an ERA that has ballooned from 3.17 up to 4.72, the rotation hasn’t been nearly as reliable.
They still have one of the best ground ball rates, but with a strikeout rate that has dropped from the fourth-best 23.8 percent to the third-worst 17.8 percent, they are missing their spots leading to more balls in play. Those balls are going for hits. Opposing hitters had a .269 BABIP through July 11. Since then it’s up to .320.
Not to single out Cristopher Sanchez — he’s not the only starter riding the struggle bus over the last month — but his Sunday start is the most recent example of starters not executing their pitches. As NBC Sports Philadlephia’s Corey Seidman points out, Sanchez missed over the plate a lot with his sinker and changeup, leading to a career-high 12 hits.
“Left a lot of pitches in the middle of the plate and created a lot of foul balls which created a lot of pitches,” Thomson said about Sanchez’s start, per Seidman. “They didn’t really hit his changeup but they did a good job of fouling it off and when they hit it, it found a hole some place.”
And that’s how it has gone for the starters: when they make a mistake, opposing hitters take advantage and find a hole on the field. Luckily, this is fixable. They need to start executing their pitches again. Fingers crossed that it happens soon.
