The Toronto Raptors are not expected to be going places next season.
In fact, they’re on track to be in the dreaded “middle” of the standings, not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to acquire the best odds for the NBA Draft Lottery. They have a lot of money committed to a team that’s currently projected as “meh” for next season.
What if that’s not where they landed, however? What if the Raptors came out next year, defied the projections and made it into the playoffs? Stranger things have happened, to be sure. Let’s look at three reasons why that unlikely outcome is far from far-fetched.
Scottie Barnes is a rising superstar
Every team wants to think that their young player is on the fast track to superstardom, but Scottie Barnes actually is. He was a deserving All-Star last season and only improved as the year went on. Many rising stars who put up high-volume scoring numbers get the early recognition, but Barnes is the kind of star that will drive winning far beyond the box score.
He was an offensive fulcrum last year and wore the mantle well, scoring at his best rate but also playmaking and setting up teammates extremely well. What’s more, and crucial to his growth as a star, he improved significantly as a shooter. Barnes shot 39.1 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and 34.1 percent overall, and he looked much more comfortable shooting from outside, increasing his shot volume from 2.9 attempts to 4.9 attempts per game.
Where Barnes is truly special, however, is when you add in his defensive impact; he goes from point forward to two-way monster. He was an incredible weakside shot-blocker, rotating crisply and using his wingspan and power to make any foray into the paint a losing move for opponents. His combination of steals, blocks, assists and 3-pointers per game had never been matched in NBA history.
If the Raptors make the playoffs next year, it will be because Scottie Barnes took the next step and became an All-NBA level talent.
The Raptors have a powerful core
Last season was a nightmare of turnover and injury, and the Toronto Raptors were frequently forced to play lineups that did not fit well together, shoehorning players out of position and yanking guys off of the street to insert into the rotation. The team the Raptors started the year with was completely changed by midseason, and then injuries wiped out multiple starters and keyed the freefall to end the year.
Based solely on how the Raptors played last season, it makes sense to be skeptical of their chances at winning enough games to get into the playoffs. They won just 25 games and had a net rating of -6.4. They finished with the sixth-worst record in the league.
The reason for optimism, however, lies with how little time the core of the Raptors got to play with one another. Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl both missed the final quarter of the season, while Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett didn’t join the team until halfway through the campaign. The Raptors’ success last season was based on backups and ill-fitting lineups, not what they will play this season.
Expecting the core of the Raptors to play well together is not a wish dream, either. The four-person lineup of Barnes, Quickley, Barrett and Poeltl did play 243 minutes together last season, and in those minutes they outscored opponents by 10.8 points per 100 possessions, the best four-man lineup on the team by far.
That group has excellent balance on both ends of the court, and has three capable playmakers and shot creators, putting stress on defenses to stop them. With a plethora of options to fill in the final spot, including Bruce Brown, Gradey Dick and rookie Ja’Kobe Walter, that core has the potential to propel the Raptors to unexpected heights.
The middle of the East is soft
Last season, the Golden State Warriors won 46 games with a +2.6 net rating and were down in 10th place in the Western Conference. Even with Scottie Barnes taking a leap and the Raptors’ best lineups being ready to shine, they likely aren’t getting to 46 games next season.
The bar to clear in the Eastern Conference, however, is much lower. The Atlanta Hawks won only 36 games last year to secure the 10th seed, with a net rating of -2.2. That seems painfully unworthy of a postseason berth, and the Hawks were subsequently knocked out in the Play-In Tournament, but it’s also a very attainable level to reach.
What’s more, the middle of the East only got weaker this season. The Chicago Bulls lost Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan and replaced them with younger, worse players. The Miami Heat continue to hemmorage role players without replacing them at all. The Atlanta Hawks traded Dejounte Murray and the Brooklyn Nets traded away Mikal Bridges.
The Top 7 teams in the East seem fairly well set – in some order, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Indiana and Orlando – but there is space after them for the Raptors to step into a Play-In berth and from there have a strong shot at making the playoffs.
Scottie Barnes is a rising star, and if Immaneul Quickley can take a step forward, the Raptors have the foundation to win more games than expected, and if things breka right, can absolutely find themselves in the playoffs at the end of the year.
