The biggest shock of college football’s Week 6 came when Vanderbilt defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama wasn’t the only top-ranked team to face defeat; Arkansas also upset Tennessee, knocking them off the list of unbeaten teams with a 19-14 victory. Additionally, USC, Michigan, and Missouri all suffered losses.
ESPN’s computer model didn’t drastically downgrade Alabama following the upset; the Crimson Tide only dropped one spot to No. 3 in the FPI rankings. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s surprising win propelled them up 16 places to No. 41.
However, Alabama’s chances of making the Playoffs took a significant hit. Prior to their loss, ESPN estimated a 91.6% likelihood for Alabama to reach the Playoffs, but this dropped to 70% after the defeat. The FPI now favors four teams—Georgia, Miami, Texas, and Ohio State—with higher probabilities of making the CFB Playoffs.
Alabama’s odds of winning the SEC Championship also fell from 30.7% to 16%. Despite this decline, only Texas, with a 45.2% chance, has a better probability of winning the SEC than Alabama.
The updated FPI shows six SEC teams with at least a 33.2% chance of making the Playoffs. Texas A&M joins this group with a probability of 33.2%, rising six spots in the FPI to No. 12 after defeating Missouri. Conversely, Missouri dropped eight spots to No. 22 due to that loss.
Here are the SEC Playoff contenders and their FPI rankings:
– Texas Longhorns (5-0) – FPI Rank No. 1, 90.9% Playoff probability
– Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1) – FPI Rank No. 3, 70% Playoff probability
– Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) – FPI Rank No. 4, 70.5% Playoff probability
– Ole Miss Rebels (5-1) – FPI Rank No. 5, 55.8% Playoff probability
– Tennessee Vols (4-1) – FPI Rank No. 6, 47.7% Playoff probability
– Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) – FPI Rank No. 12, 33.2% Playoff probability
– LSU Bengal Tigers (4-1) – FPI Rank No. 15, 13.7% Playoff probability
– Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) – FPI Rank No. 17, 13.4% Playoff probability
– Missouri Tigers (4-1) – FPI Rank No. 22, 10.1% Playoff probability
Other SEC teams include Arkansas (No. 24), Kentucky (No. 25), Auburn (No. 34), South Carolina (No. 35), Florida (No. 36), Vanderbilt (No. 41), and Mississippi State (No. 68).
As a predictive model, ESPN’s FPI will need a few more weeks of games to refine its rankings.
me data to provide solid information. Even so, Alabama’s slight dip to No. 3 in encouraging to Crimson Tide fans still reeling from the loss to Vanderbilt.
