The Auburn Tigers are hitting a hiatus from football at the perfect time. After starting the season with an emphatic win over Alabama A&M, Hugh Freeze’s squad has scuffled to a 1-4 record over the next five weeks against FBS competition. Auburn’s lone win in that stretch came against the 1-4 New Mexico Lobos, who are likely to finish in the bottom half of the Mountain West. Through quarterback changes, injuries on special teams, and suspect play calling, Auburn’s start to the 2024-2025 season has not gone to plan.
Still, the Tigers have an opportunity to get healthy and fix some issues during the bye week. If they can find some kind of consistency, it’s possible Auburn can claw its way to a bowl game in 2025. One of the steps in doing so will be improving on a fading ESPN FPI ranking, although that ranking actually improved after the Tigers most recent loss to Georgia. Hugh Freeze and company now sit at No. 34 in the Football Power Index after the loss to the Bulldogs. While the ranking is still in the bottom half of the conference, it is an improvement from last week.
The FPI ranks each college football team by a variety of factors; Strength of record, strength of schedule, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and overall efficiency. Here is where Auburn ranks in each category heading into an important bye week on the Plains.
Overall Ranking: No. 34
Auburn lost again on Saturday, but it was not as ugly as the final score might have indicated. The Tigers were able to put constant pressure of Georgia’s defense throughout the first three quarters of the contest, making the game very much up in the air until late in the second half. Unfortunately mental victories aren’t worth much of anything when you haven’t earned an actual victory in almost a month.
Strength of Record: No. 99
Online Athens
Auburn’s strength of record ranking did not change following the loss in Athens. The Tigers are still second worst in the category among SEC teams, ahead of only Mississippi State and over 50 spots behind the third worst ranked team in the conference, Florida (48).
Strength of Schedule: No. 13
Auburn’s biggest FPI jump was in the strength of schedule category, where they rose from No. 77 to No. 13 after the loss to Georgia. This category is likely what will keep the Tigers a float in overall ranking, as Auburn’s schedule doesn’t get any easier the fall rolls on. Payton Thorne and company do take on a struggling Missouri team in Columbia following the bye, but the road test will still be considered an extremely difficult game to win.
Only Georgia (3), Kentucky (6), and Mississippi State (8) rank higher in the conference in the strength of schedule metric.
Overall Efficiency: No. 61
The Tigers rose 12 spots in overall efficiency, from No. 73 to No. 61, following the loss on Saturday. Auburn actually managed the same amount of yards per play (5.8) as UGA throughout the contest while managing just under 50 yards of total offense compared to their counterparts as well. Auburn was once again able to move the ball thanks to chunk plays, but inability to convert on third down (4/13) canceled out an otherwise very efficient afternoon that included no offensive turnovers from the Tigers.
Offensive Efficiency: No. 68
Online Athens
Auburn also rose in offensive efficiency despite another loss. Payton Thorne was able to completely take care of the ball for the first time since the opener, while the Tigers offense as a whole hummed their way to 337 total yards. Although the yardage output was solid considering what Auburn was facing in a hostile environment, failure to score touchdowns undid an otherwise valiant effort from Thorne, running back Jarquez Hunter (91 yards, 1 touchdown), and the contingent of Tiger pass catchers.
Defensive Efficiency: No. 54
The strength of the team a year ago, Auburn’s defense has not had a great season so far in 2024. The Tigers once again failed to create a turnover from the opposing offense, while also allowing Georgia to convert on over 50% of third down opportunities (7/13) and both of its fourth down attempts (2/2). Auburn’s defense outside of defensive lineman Keldric Faulk and linebacker Jalen McLeod has been average at best, and with the offensive struggling, it has created a mediocre football team on the Plains.
