Every season, Alabama would be counted as a perennial College Football Playoff contender under Nick Saban. With the format expanding to 12 teams it could be expected that Alabama will continue that trend, but instead things change this season and they will miss the playoffs.
The biggest factor in this is the coaching change. Saban was able to command the Crimson Tide well and keep the team stable through SEC play. That won’t be the case this season as Kalen DeBoer takes over as the head coach. DeBoer comes in after turning around the Washington Huskies program and taking them to the National Championship last season. DeBoer has a winning pedigree but in year one, it will take time for the philosophy to officially switch under the new regime from the way this team was used to with Saban. That adjustment time will hold Alabama back.
The talent Alabama lost on offense will also play an impact. Jalen Milroe is still under center, but the offensive line is undergoing some changes with JC Latham no longer there after declaring for the NFL Draft, and Terrence Ferguson, Seth McLaughlin, and James Brockermeyer also are gone after transferring. Kadyn Proctor is back, but that necessarily might not be a good thing after allowing 12 sacks and 36 pressures. The line needs to be the engine of the team and function at a high level for this offense to succeed. Milroe not only has the adjust behind a new line, but to new playmakers as well. Two of his top three wide receivers are gone in Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond. The success of the unit hinders on Jalen Hall who could be the guy to stretch the field, but he is recovering from a knee injury. Germie Bernard will be the star of the receiving room, but a lot of pressure will come on him to keep the unit stable.
On the defensive line, they have two returning good players on the interior of the line with Tim Keenan and Tim Smith. Where it gets more uncertain is the edge position with Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell now gone to the NFL. The cornerback room also is a question mark, with three out of the five players being freshman and Domani Jackson is transferring in for his first season at Alabama, making the room inexperienced. The safety room is the same, Malachi Moore and Keon Sabb bring the experience, but they need to stay healthy because the depth behind them is scarce and inexperienced.
Then comes the schedule, which isn’t favorable either. The Crimson Tide have to play Georgia and Missouri at home, and some other top teams like Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma on the road. Not to mention in September they have to face Wisconsin and Georgia in back-to-back weeks as the team tries to still adjust.
Between the roster changes, coaching changes, and unfavorable schedule Alabama will regress, and miss the College Football Playoffs this 2024 season.
