The Seattle Seahawks have not been a good red zone team over the past two seasons—they were 28th in red zone touchdown rate in 2022 and “improved” to 25th last year. One of the main culprits? A truly horrendous running game inside the opponent’s 10-yard line.
For a team that has invested a ton of draft capital in its running backs, the Seahawks have failed to find an offensive line that can actually block for them near the end zone. The following data is exclusively Seattle running back carries from the opposition 10-to-1 yard line:
2022
- 19 carries for 11 yards (0.6 yards per carry, worst in the NFL),
- 2 touchdowns (fewest in the NFL)
- 52.6% stuff rate (carries resulting in 0 or lost yards, worst in the NFL by 11%)
- 21.1% positive EPA rate (worst in the NFL by 16%)
2023
- 32 carries for 18 yards (0.6 yards per carry, second-worst in the NFL)
- 7 touchdowns (17th in the NFL)
- 37.5% stuff rate (fifth-worst in the NFL)
- 43.8% positive EPA rate (seventh-worst in the NFL)
That’s right. The Seahawks have given the ball to their running backs 51 times for 29 yards within 10 yards of the opposition end zone. A little under half of their carries are losing yards or gaining nothing.
Seattle has had one of the worst “hit at the line” rates in the league (per Sports Info Solutions), which means the only thing you can conclude is the offensive line is getting absolutely wrecked in these situations. The Seahawks’ shotgun success was statistically better than non-shotgun situations, which is saying very little, but can dispel the idea that reliance on shotgun running was the problem.
You know who didn’t have much difficulty running the ball deep in the red zone? New Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and his offensive line coach Scott Huff.
This is obviously not an apples-to-apples comparison, but the results couldn’t be any more stark. These stats are the same as the NFL but limited to Power 5 (Big XII, Pac-12, SEC, ACC, and Big Ten) vs. Power 5 matchups.
2022
- 39 carries for 84 yards
- 16 touchdowns
- 30.8% stuff rate
- 59% positive EPA rate
2023
- 47 carries for 130 yards
- 15 touchdowns
- 14.9% stuff rate
- 61.7% positive EPA rate
All of these statistics are in the top-half of all 64 Power 5 schools, and the Huskies were a machine in 2023. With all due respect to Dillon Johnson, the running back position was not the focal point of the offense. You know what they did have, though? An elite offensive line with a first- and second-round pick in this year’s draft.
Grubb and Huff will have their work cut out for them with a (projected) mostly inexperienced offensive line that could consist of three first-year full-time starters on the interior. If they can improve the OL right away, then it should help the red zone rushing attack. It cannot possibly be worse than what we saw under the final two seasons under Pete Carroll, Shane Waldron, and Andy Dickerson. Want to be a physical football team? I know it’s easier said than done, but play like it.
