Not long ago, Iowa State looked like one of the most intriguing teams in women’s college basketball—a potential first-weekend host with a star freshman who could carry the Cyclones deep into March.
Now? That version of Iowa State feels like a distant memory.
On Wednesday night, the Cyclones dropped their fourth straight game, falling to 2–4 since Big 12 play began. The losing streak has forced a hard reset in expectations. This is no longer a dark-horse contender story. It’s a survival story—and one that may end outside the NCAA Tournament altogether.
What’s Gone Wrong?
The issues are no longer subtle.
Teams have figured out how to defend Audi Crooks, loading the paint, doubling early, and daring anyone else on the floor to beat them. At the same time, Iowa State has been without Addy Brown, its second-best player, for three consecutive games—with no clear return timeline in sight.
That combination has been devastating.
Without Brown, defenses can fully sell out on Crooks. And when the Cyclones’ supporting cast doesn’t make shots, Iowa State’s offense grinds to a halt.
The result? Four straight losses and a team that may fall out of the rankings entirely next week.
Could Iowa State Actually Miss the Tournament?
As uncomfortable as it sounds, the answer is yes.
Looking at recent NCAA Tournament history gives us a rough roadmap. Last season, Virginia Tech was the first team out with an 18–12 record and a NET ranking of 47. Several power-conference teams with strong resumes still didn’t make the cut.
In the Big 12 specifically, the margin is razor-thin. Last year:
Two Big 12 teams finished with 19 wins and missed the tournament
Colorado won 20 games and was still left out
That reality suggests Iowa State likely needs at least 21 wins to feel safe.
To get there, the Cyclones would need eight more victories, meaning a 7–5 finish the rest of the way. Even getting to 20 wins would require six more victories—and that’s far from guaranteed given the remaining schedule.
The Schedule Doesn’t Offer Much Mercy
On paper, Iowa State still has “winnable” games against:
Cincinnati
Arizona
UCF
BYU
Arizona State
But calling any of those easy feels dishonest—especially considering the Cyclones already lost to Cincinnati once.
Beyond that, Iowa State likely needs to steal two more wins from tougher matchups. Road games at Texas Tech and Utah loom large. Kansas State appears twice and is beatable, but not forgiving. And the Big 12 Tournament offers little margin for error—an early upset could be fatal.
There is a path forward, but it’s narrow, uphill, and unforgiving.
The Biggest Missing Piece: Addy Brown
The simplest solution would be getting Brown back on the floor. Her absence has reshaped everything Iowa State does offensively.
Unfortunately, Brown is out indefinitely—and head coach Bill Fennelly hasn’t sounded particularly optimistic. Without her, Iowa State’s ceiling drops dramatically.
If This Team Is Going to Survive, Others Must Step Up
Against Colorado, Crooks was limited—but Iowa State still had chances thanks to Sydney Harris, who went 4-for-8 from deep.
That can’t be a one-off.
Mackenzie Hare must hit open shots
Jada Williams has to punish defenses for sagging off her
Role players must force defenses to pay for overloading on Crooks
Simply put: Audi Crooks cannot be Audi Crooks if everyone else is ignored.
At the same time, Crooks herself may need to adjust. She’s shooting a solid 43.5% on midrange attempts, but she’s taken very few of them—especially in conference play. Expanding her offensive profile might not be ideal, but standing still clearly isn’t working either.
What Happens Next?
Iowa State travels to Oklahoma State on January 18, a game that looks like an uphill battle. But the real pivot point comes on January 21, when the Cyclones host Cincinnati in Ames.
Cincinnati already beat Iowa State once—but that game was on the road. The Bearcats rank 291st nationally in defensive rating, making this the best possible opportunity for Iowa State’s non-Crooks players to finally show signs of life.
Lose that game, and the math gets grim. Very grim.
Final Outlook
Without Addy Brown, Iowa State’s chances of making real noise in March are slim. But with enough internal adjustments, timely shooting, and just enough wins, the Cyclones could still back their way into the NCAA Tournament.
It’s no longer about upside.
It’s about survival.
And right now, nothing is guaranteed.
