If there’s one thing that coaches, players, fans, media should know about the NFL by now is that team records don’t always tell the full story, especially in mid-September because crazy things tend to happen early in the year.
So while the Buffalo Bills deserve to be 2-0 and the Jacksonville Jaguars deserve to be 0-2 as they get ready to collide Monday night at Highmark Stadium, no one should be thinking this will be an easy night for the Bills.
Quite the opposite, in fact, because very often the most dangerous teams in the NFL are preseason playoff contenders who stumble out of the gate 0-2, teams this year like the Jaguars, Colts, Bengals and Ravens.
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Since 2020 when the NFL expanded it’s playoff format to seven teams qualifying from each conference, 32 have opened 0-2 and only the 2022 Bengals and 2023 Texans rallied to make the postseason. No 0-3 team has made the postseason, and if you go back to 2000, the only 0-3 team to make it was the 2018 Texans.
Trevor Lawrence has gotten off to a slow start, part of the reason why the Jaguars are 0-2.
If for no other reason, that’s what makes the Jaguars a dangerous opponent for the Bills because they are a team, with a franchise quarterback and several very good players sprinkled throughout the roster, who believe they are playoff worthy, and thus come to Orchard Park supremely motivated as they try to scratch and claw their way out of the already imposing hole they have dug for themselves.
“They’re a good team and we respect every team that we play,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “I think that’s where it starts and that’s where it ends. We have a lot of respect for the Jaguars.”
As they should, especially given the recent history between the teams because in 2021, a terrible Jacksonville team beat the Bills 9-6, and then last year in London, the 3-1 Bills, who were coming off a blowout victory over Miami, got punched in the mouth by the Jaguars and lost 25-20.
“The last couple times we’ve played them, they’ve gotten the best of us,” Josh Allen said with a knowing nod and recognition that the Bills have their work cut out for them under the Monday night lights.
Here’s my preview of the game:
Why has Curtis Samuel been missing from Bills’ offense?
No one ever thought that Samuel was going to be a 1-for-1 swap for Stefon Diggs, but it’s also safe to say that no one thought through two games that Samuel would have three catches on four targets for 18 yards and been on the field for a grand total of 29 snaps.
Samuel was advertised as a versatile weapon who could line up outside, in the slot, even in the backfield, and give Allen easy button throws that could turn into sizable gains because of his run after catch ability.
Instead, Samuel has been invisible and part of that might be that he’s still not 100% after dealing with turf toe in the preseason, though McDermott was asked about Samuel’s low usage after the Cardinals game and he said the injury had nothing to do with it. If that’s the case, that’s a bit disconcerting.
Bills Curtis Samuel gets a few yards on the carry before being taken down by Arizona’s Owen Pappoe during the second half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sept. 8, 2024.
The Bills haven’t needed production from Samuel or the other wide receivers to win the first two games, but what happens when a team – perhaps the Jaguars – shuts down the run game and forces the Bills to move the ball through the air? The only WR who has given the Bills anything in both games has been Khalil Shakir. If Samuel is not slowed by the turf toe, he needs to start getting open and finding his niche in the offense.
Jacksonville is primarily a man-to-man defense and the Bills receivers – who have shown a knack for finding openings in zone – are going to need to win their one-on-one matchups and this is one of the things that many are wondering. Can this group of receivers do that?
Good timing for Dawuane Smoot’s Bills debut
Almost before the ink was dry on the one-year free agent contract the defensive lineman signed with the Bills, he took a look at the schedule of games for the 2024 season. It would be nearly two weeks before the dates and times would be announced, but right away, Smoot saw that the Bills would be playing his old team, the Jaguars.
“When I signed here, I looked at the schedule and that was the first thing I’d seen so of course I had this circled for a long time for sure,” Smoot said Wednesday.
And because Smoot missed the first two games with a toe injury, there is added significance playing against his old team because this will be his debut for Buffalo. “It sucks not being out there with your guys,” Smoot said. “I’m looking at the TV, I’m yelling about things that I could have done, so I mean it’s just definitely going to be exciting to be back for sure.”
Smoot played seven seasons for the Jaguars after they drafted him in the third round in 2017 out of Illinois and during his time in north Florida he played 99 games as a rotational lineman who could line up on the edge or move inside. That versatility should come in handy, especially on passing downs because if Bobby Babich chooses, he could set up a four-man rush that includes Greg Rousseau and Von Miller on the edges and Smoot and Ed Oliver at tackle, and that would be a load for any offensive line.
Smoot has also been a valuable resource because having practiced for three years against Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense, “I know everything about them, so they’ve been coming up and asking me about everything they do, the demeanor, the little tips like (Lawrence’s) eyes and feet and stuff like that, and I’ve been giving them everything I can.”
Can the Bills contain Jags RB Travis Etienne?
Travis Etienne broke a 36-yard touchdown run last year in London against the Bills.
There will be plenty of focus on former Bills’ WR Gabe Davis who signed with the Jaguars as a free agent and has six catches for 105 yards in his first two games. And there’s also rookie WR Brian Thomas, Jacksonville’s first-round pick and a player many draft analysts thought the Bills would have taken had he been available when their turn came up several slots later. He has six catches for 141 yards and a touchdown.
But the key to Jacksonville’s attack is Etienne, a dual threat as a runner (96 yards, 2 TDs) and receiver, even though his five catches for 21 yards don’t look significant.
On early downs, when the Bills are in their base nickel defense, the Jaguars might look to get Etienne matched up against LBs Baylon Spector and Dorian Williams, two backups now starting due to injuries to Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard. Etienne could also get into matchups with Cam Lewis who is playing for injured Taron Johnson, or even Ja’Marcus Ingram who has been used as a sixth defensive back.
It’s definitely an area Lawrence could exploit because right now, the Bills’ boundary CB duo of Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas is playing outstanding and they could very well take away Davis and Thomas.
Last year in London, Etienne killed the Bills as he rushed for 136 yards and two TDs and caught four passes for 48 yards on a day when Williams had to take over for Milano who was hurt in the first quarter.
If needed, is Tyler Bass ready for the moment?
Confidence in Tyler Bass is wavering after a bad miss last week against Miami.
On Tuesday the Bills brought in unemployed kickers Cade York and Anders Carlson for a look. Right away, fans assumed the Bills were replacing Bass because he missed so badly on a 45-yard field goal attempt in Miami.
No, they aren’t moving on from, mainly because his salary cap number is ugly if they do so both this year and next, but also because it was one kick. Remember, to that point Bass had made all three of his field goals and all eight of his extra points.
However, that miss was ugly. There was no wind, it was a warm night, and there was zero pressure because the Bills were up 31-10, and Bass just shanked it. After the way 2023 ended, it’s easy to understand fans’ angst whenever Bass comes out to attempt a kick.
Even with his struggles, Bass has still made 84.6% of his field goals since entering the league in 2020 which is the 25th-best career mark in NFL history. However, when you dig a little deeper, you see that among active kickers – at a time when kickers have never been better – Bass is the 14th-most accurate career kicker.
Meaning, in comparison to his contemporaries, guys like Justin Tucker, Harrison Butker, and many others, he’s middle of the road and for a team that figures to be in a whole bunch of tight games this season, Bass needs to be better.
Yes, the Jaguars losing to the Browns to fall to 0-2 wasn’t the best result for the Bills, but just because Jacksonville is a desperate team with its back firmly pressed against a wall, that shouldn’t be an excuse for Buffalo. The Bills are the better team in this matchup, they are at home, and if they play a clean game like they did in Miami when they had no turnovers and committed only one penalty, they should be able to handle a struggling Jaguars offense that has managed just 30 points, and then do enough on offense to get the victory.
