At this time last year, along with the typical free agent drama, Tampa Bay Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois had some restricted free agent business to conduct. Brandon Hagel was eligible for an extension and Ross Colton needed a contract that wouldn’t fit under the salary cap. He resolved those issues by signing Hagel to a deal that kicks in this season (although it took until August) and trading Ross Colton at the draft. Luckily, this year, he doesn’t have to worry about that. At the NHL level, there are no RFAs that need a lengthy, expensive extension. In fact, there aren’t any next season either. Chances are, unless something drastically changes, there just aren’t any young players knocking on the door right now that can really justify 8-year deals. In fact, that probably won’t happen until the likes of Isaac Howard, Dylan Duke, and Ethan Gauthier make it to restricted free agency.
While there aren’t any RFAs at the NHL level (except for Logan Brown) there are some intriguing names down in Syracuse that have made their way through their entry-level contracts and are looking at their next contracts. Will the Lightning send all of them qualifying offers or have a few seen their time with the Lightning organization come to an end?
First, a quick refresher on qualifying offers per the Cap Friendly Qualifying Offer calculator.
Teams have until the later of June 25 or the first Monday following the entry draft. With the draft being held June 28th-29th, the deadline will be Monday June 30th.
If a player does not receive a qualifying offer by that deadline, they are an unrestricted free agent.
If a player refuses to sign a qualifying offer, and does not have arbitration rights, they remain a restricted free agent and the team retains their rights.That only applies to two of the Lightning’s RFAs.
The minimum qualifying offer is set by a sliding scale based on a player’s previous year’s base salary. For the Lightning all of their restricted free agents were on a contract that paid them $775,000 last season, so they have to be offered at least 105% of that salary. The math puts that at $813,750.
Teams are more than able to offer RFAs more money or longer term contracts.
If a team sends a qualifying offer, they have the right to match any offer sheets a player signs from other teams. If they choose not to match, they are then entitled to draft pick compensation. It’s doubtful anyone is tossing an offer sheet around this summer, especially for the Lightning’s crop of RFAs.
Before we delve into the the restricted free agents, a quick note on the unrestricted free agents that finished the season with the Syracuse Crunch. Alex Barré-Boulet will be a UFA on July 1st. After a strong finish to his season with the Crunch, has he earned a look from another organization and a one-way contract? Possibly.
Philippe Myers is also an unrestricted free agent. While things haven’t worked out at the NHL level, he has had a tremendous effect on the young players in Syracuse. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lightning bring the 27-year-old back on a two-way deal to provide some leadership to what will be a very young defense next season.
The other two UFAs get there by being Group VI free agents. Sean Day and Cole Koepke are both older than 25 and have completed more than three professional seasons without getting to the 80 games-played mark in the NHL.
Both may draw some interest from other organizations with Day the most likely to see a new address in his future. Koepke led the team in goals during the regular season and finished second in point. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him pick up a new two-way deal in the next couple of weeks that mirrors what Mitchell Chaffee signed for earlier in the month.
Now, onto the restricted free agents!
Gage Goncalves – Restricted Free Agent – no arbitration rights
It’s hard to believe, but the 23-year-old has already played 212 regular season games for the Crunch. He’s bumped up his points total every season and finished 2023-24 with a team leading 58 points (13 goals, 45 assists). There is a good chance he’ll be competing for one of the open spots on the Lightning’s roster next season and has the skills to help out on the power play. This should be a quick no-brainer signing. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Goncalves get a multi-year deal despite not having any real NHL experience, much like Taylor Raddysh did back in 2021-22.
Gabriel Fortier – Restricted Free Agent – arbitration eligible
It’s been an odd career for Fortier. Still only 24-years-old, it feels like he’s been in the system forever. He does a lot of really good things for the Crunch, but also tends to disappear for stretches of time. While he does have arbitration rights, there really isn’t much leverage he can bring to a counter-offer. The Lightning will likely sign him to another short-term deal. It’ll be a big season for him to see if he can take the next step and earn a permanent role at the NHL level.
Walterri Merela – Restricted Free Agent – arbitration eligible
While he has just one season in North America under his belt, his time in the Liiga counts towards his professional experience. Chances are he’s penciled in for a spot in the bottom-six next season once they come to an agreement. As the year continued, his comfort level increased at the NHL level and he could be primed for a breakout season in 2024-25. It feels like he’s earned at least a two-year deal.
Felix Robert – Restricted Free Agent -arbitration eligible
Robert is an interesting case. He joined the Lightning when the Penguins didn’t send him a qualifying offer prior to the 2022-23 season. In two seasons with the Crunch he’s put up 31 goals and 68 points in 108 games, but I’m not sure what his future looks like with the organization. Does he have a path to the NHL, or is he a career AHLer. He turns 25 this summer and has yet to crack the big leagues. They may give him a chance to latch onto another organization by declining to offer him a contact.
Declan Carlile – Restricted Free Agent – arbitration eligible
The Lightning’s recent trend of drafting and signing college players does lead to the occasional situation where players can get to arbitration a little quicker than normal. Since he signed at age 21, Carlile just needed 3 seasons of professional hockey to earn his rights. Per the CBA, a player just needs 11 games in a season to have considered having played a season. With 10 regular season games and 4 playoffs games in his first year, Carlile qualified. He’s had two solid seasons with the Crunch, and earned a one-game call-up with the Bolts. He should be back in the blue and white of Syracuse next year.
Hugo Alnefelt – Restricted Free Agent – no arbitration rights
The Lightning are likely to extend a qualifying offer to Alnefelt despite the fact he’s probably heading back to Sweden next season. As mentioned above, as long as they offered him a valid contract, they retain his rights. That could come in handy in the future, either if Alnefelt has a change of heart or the Lightning use his rights in a trade. At just 22, there is still time for him to develop. We’ll have to keep an eye on the length of any contract he signs in Europe. If it’s just a year or two, it wouldn’t be surprising if Tampa Bay keeps him in the organization. Anything longer than that and he might be done.
With no big contracts due to the pending restricted free agents, this should be a rather routine part of the summer for Mr. BriseBois. Unlike last summer with Ross Colton, he’s not stuck with having to move any of his RFAs to other teams. That’s not saying he won’t, but everyone listed above should be able to be signed without causing too much pain in regards to the salary cap as the deals will all be under the threshold of what can be stashed in the AHL without incurring any kind of hit. Which is nice for him, considering the unrestricted free agent issues he has to deal with over the next few months.
