Is It Possible for the Cubs and Orioles to Reach an Agreement on a Manageable Starter?
The Cubs have an off-day today. But tomorrow, they head out to Baltimore to take on the first-place Orioles for three games at Camden Yards. But despite Baltimore’s stout record (57-33) and 3.0 game lead in the AL East, the Orioles have needs in the rotation that extends beyond this season. And that, in my speculative estimation, could wind up involving the Chicago Cubs. You’ll see why in a moment.
In a rumor roundup post at The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal discussed the Orioles’ roster-holes, painting the picture of a team in need of starters both now and in the future. He also revealed that they may be willing to trade big league assets and/or prospects to get it done.
“Here’s an alarming little fact about the Orioles, one that will only increase their push to add a controllable starter before the deadline: Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich are their only three current starters under team control beyond this season.
In other words, the Orioles will need to add as many as three starters before 2025.
Even with an expected payroll boost under new ownership, the team does not figure to address all of its rotation needs in free agency. Its surplus of position-player prospects only adds to the likelihood of a trade for a starting pitcher — provided general manager Mike Elias is willing to be the high bidder in a limited market, as he was for Corbin Burnes.”
Rosenthal went on to add that “the Orioles can be open to deals for (their) higher-salaried veterans, knowing those players can be replaced internally.”
To clarify that last line within the context of the whole article, Rosenthal is saying that the Orioles would be willing to include not only prospects but also big league talent (someone they can replace internally) to acquire a big league starting pitcher.
The specific big leaguers mentioned (Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays) don’t inspire a ton of intrigue, but you could see how a combination alongside someone(s) from the Orioles impressive farm system could be attractive to a team like the Cubs.
Which, oh yeah, let’s talk about why this could make sense from the Cubs perspective. It’s actually quite simple.
The Cubs are probably going to be sellers at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline.
The Cubs are probably not targeting strict “big leaguer-for-prospect” type deals in an effort to contend again as soon as next season.
The Cubs don’t have a lot to trade right now, but starting pitching is the one area from which they actually do have some depth. We talked about that recently.
When everyone is healthy, the Cubs starting options run deep (not all equal, of course): Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Kyle Hendricks, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Cade Horton.
In my opinion, the Cubs are unlikely to trade Imanaga, Horton, or Brown right now, and likely nobody wants Kyle Hendricks. I also think it would be a mistake to trade Wicks, and I don’t want them to trade Justin Steele short of an absolute HAUL (which, to be fair, the Orioles are one of the few orgs who could probably put together the sort of package that could make you think twice).
Of the remaining group, however, Jameson Taillon, Hayden Wesneski, and Javier Assad could each make some sense as potential targets for the Orioles.
Taillon: 2.5 years remaining, ~$45M
Wesneski: 4 years, not arb eligible until 2026
Assad: 4 years, not arb eligible until 2026
Obviously, Taillon isn’t cheap, but he’s having a really nice season overall (2.99 ERA over 14 starts) and has been pretty great for exactly one calendar year: 3.67 ERA over his last 34 starts and 198.2 IP.
Maybe the Cubs would have to eat some money in a deal to get a strong return, but I have to think they’d be open to trading Taillon if it ultimately took 2025 and 2026 money off the books and returned a nice package.
Wesneski obviously has some upside as a starter, but he’s also been inconsistent. Nonetheless, he is cheap and under control for a long time. If the Orioles see an angle to limit the homers and/or help him against lefties, you could see how he’d be an interesting target for them.
Assad would be the most painful loss in a sense, given how consistently good he’s been, but he’s also injured at the moment and has far out-performed his peripherals since his debut. If someone was willing to buy high, so to speak, the Cubs should at least consider it. And, again, he’s cheap and young and under control for a while. He might make sense for the Orioles.
But this is all getting way ahead of ourselves, in terms of trying to dig in on the specifics. The broader point here is relatively simple. The Cubs are likely sellers with controllable starters to deal. The Orioles are seeking a controllable starter and have big league pieces and a great cache of prospects to deal. It’s not hard to connect these two together. So keep this in mind as the weeks unfold.
