Knowing what we now know, did GM Mike Elias and Co. do enough to keep a playoff contender afloat at the trade deadline by supporting the bats?
On Tuesday, Sept. 17, something strange happened in the Baltimore Orioles organization. No, it wasn’t the firing of a Hall-of-Fame closer (more on that in a second). It was GM Mike Elias making a spontaneous media appearance in a spirit of … contrition?? Entering the “trade deadline in particular and the offseason,” explained Elias,
I was very fixated on pitching, pitching depth, pitching improvements. Going into the [July 30 trade] deadline, our rotation was scuffling. As it has turned out, we’ve had pitching injuries, but they’ve come way more on the position player side in very unexpected ways. That’s been unfortunate. It’s just another humbling reminder of how baseball keeps you on your toes and keeps you guessing.
This hasn’t happened before, not on Mike Elias’s watch. When he and his team of stats whizzes took over in winter 2019, the team was in the toilet, and everyone understood that selling off its remaining parts to kick off a several-years-long rebuild was inevitable. But just over two years after that, the top prospects started arriving, and the team returned to form quicker than expected. Pulling off a stunning run down the stretch in 2022, the team finished over .500 for the first time in six years and just three games out of a playoff spot. Then in 2023, they were a dazzling 101-win team, and although they bounced out of the playoffs painfully quickly, this was easily chalked up to youthful inexperience.
Now, however, not so much. The fanbase is frustrated, angry, and wants some answers. It’s been a disappointing second half, and a disastrous September. On Wednesday, the Orioles (84-68) dropped a second straight game to the San Francisco Giants, their ninth loss in the last twelve games. On Wednesday, they DFA’d their Hall of Fame closer Craig Kimbrel after he posted an ERA of 22.09 in his last four outings. After holding the AL East lead as recently as Sept. 6, they’ve sunk steadily lower, and now 5 games back of the Yankees. They’re still in possession of the top spot in the AL Wild Card standings, but it’s hard to feel good even about that right now.
Losing stinks, but it’s also about how. On Tuesday night, Baltimore was shut out by left-handed ace Blake Snell, who racked up 12 strikeouts over six innings of one-hit ball. But against rookie right-hander Hayden Birdsong on Wednesday, the bats didn’t put up much more of a fight (three runs on four hits and two walks). Baltimore has scored three or fewer runs in ten of its past twelve games, and the team’s .218 September average is the fifth-worst in MLB.
The front office is “keeping the faith” in the Orioles, but do they deserve a share of the blame? Knowing what we now know, did Mike Elias and Co. do enough to keep a playoff contender afloat? Here’s how Mike Elias sees the problem. Let’s quote the GM one more time from his Tuesday press appearance:
Ultimately, I put the roster together, I put the staff together, I put the personnel together. And results in this business, whether it’s this year or other years, it starts right here with me. But that’s been, I think, our focus this year, and the testing of our depth and a lot of depth we’ve lost is not something I anticipated in this degree in the second half on the position player side.
In other words, Elias says the front office was blindsided by losses on the position player, not the pitching side, and the skid can be attributed to it.
Is this a correct account of what’s happened? And how much is the front office’s fault, as opposed to crummy luck?
One implication of Elias’s version of things is that the front office did its best to patch up holes in the pitching staff, both in the offseason and the trade deadline. Yes, the Corbin Burnes trade back in February was a massive deal. And they brought back key bullpen pieces in Danny Coulombe, Cionel Pérez, Cole Irvin and Dillon Tate. Pérez has been good; Coulombe injured; the other two regressed a lot this year. They tried to find depth in Jonathan Heasley and Julio Teheran, neither with success. And of course, with All-Star closer Félix Bautista out all of 2024 after Tommy John surgery, they signed nine-time All-Star Craig Kimbrel.
Then, come the trade deadline, they were suddenly confronted with a slew of pitching injuries. Three starters fell to elbow injuries in the spring—Tyler Wells (April), John Means (May) and Kyle Bradish (June), all players they were counting on to contribute at the start of the season. Bradish, especially, was a blow: he finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting last season with a 2.75 ERA. In May, Dean Kremer also landed on the injured list (triceps), although his has been possible to rehab. Coulombe also ended up on the injured list.
The team’s response was to unload a bunch of prospects (Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Jackson Baumeister, Mac Horvath, Matthew Etzel, Trey McGough) for a bunch of mostly new pitchers: LHP Gregory Soto, RHP closer type Seranthony Domínguez, RHP starter Zach Eflin, and LHP starter Trevor Rogers.
A few questions now loom large: was Craig Kimbrel-for-Félix-Bautista ever going to be a decent trade? And did they do enough at the deadline, considering the state of the rotation?
Of the Kimbrel signing back in December, Camden Chat’s Mark Brown pointed out that it was over a decade ago that the 36-year-old had dominated in Atlanta, and he’d experienced diminished velo and increased home run rates lately. But he’d pitched decently in the last two seasons as part of the Dodgers and Phillies bullpens, including a 3.26 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP and a 12.3 K/9 rate in 2023 with Philly. Had he done that, I think we would have been fine.
As for the trade deadline acquisitions, it’s hard to feel like you can subtract Bradish, Means and Wells and replace them with Trevor Rogers and Zach Eflin and be perfectly serene about it. Eflin has been a brilliant find, with a 5-2 record and 2.22 ERA in seven starts as an Oriole. But Rogers was dreadful, and finds himself in Triple-A.
Granted, it all depends on availability and price, and Mike Elias made it clear during several interviews in July that teams were overcharging for starting pitching, including the White Sox, who were asking a king’s ransom for Garrett Crochet, then 6-8 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in a breakout season. Should the Orioles have gone all-in for Crochet? Not if it meant emptying the cupboard. But maybe Frankie Montas, whom the Brewers obtained for a reliever, an outfield prospect, and cash, or even Jack Flaherty, whom the Dodgers gave up their No. 8 and No. 22 prospects for, would have made sense? It’s tricky, though. Neither of these two is looking stellar for their new team: Montas is 3-3 with a 3.55 ERA and Flaherty has a 3.25 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in eight starts as a Dodger.
One more starting pitcher would have been nice, clearly. After a 3.68 team ERA in April, a 2.86 mark in May, and a 3.73 ERA in June, the team has posted a 4.97 in July, 4.68 in August, and 3.87 in September/October. Clearly the loss of three starters hurt, but it’s also true that pitching hasn’t been the worst of the team’s problems. We haven’t mentioned Grayson Rodriguez, who’s missed a month with a lat/teres strain. Maybe he’ll still return in time for the end of the season. So will escape artist Coulombe, and fellow reliever Jacob Webb just returned. That’ll help.
OK, so what about the offense? Was it completely unpredictable, either in the offseason or back in July, that the team would struggle to score as badly as they have down the stretch? I’d say strongly no to the former, based on the strength of the initial lineup, and tentatively no to the latter, based on what they knew about injuries.
Here, for purposes of illustration, is this year’s Orioles Opening Day lineup:
I’d take my chances with these guys in a heartbeat. So what happened? Injuries, basically, and almost all after the July 30 deadline. Second baseman Jorge Mateo had a freak collision with Henderson on July 23 and ended up needing to have season-ending surgery on his elbow, which was performed on Aug. 28. Jordan Westburg, who was slashing .269/.317/.497 with 25 doubles, five triples, 18 home runs and 58 RBIs in 101 games, got hit in the hand with a fastball on July 31 and placed on the IL a day later. The Orioles have not been able to make up his production.
First baseman Ryan Mountcastle exited the Orioles’ Aug. 22 game against the Astros with wrist soreness after sliding into second base on a double and was placed on the IL four days later. Before that, he’d been sustaining slightly below-average production, with a .265/.305/.425/.730 that’d be great for a glove-first defender, but not a bat-first first baseman. Infielder Ramón Urías was not expected to play a starter role, but after the Westburg/Mateo injuries, he got his shot, and was hitting .341 with four home runs and 15 RBIs in his last 15 games before he, too, went down with injury (a right ankle sprain). Also not to be forgotten is that the Orioles traded Austin Hays and his .255/.316/.395/.711 slashline to the Phillies for help in the bullpen.
In their place, the O’s have tried to make it work with journeyman infielder Emmanuel Rivera (hitting .275 with .525 slugging and an .881 OPS in 18 games), Eloy Jiménez (.234 BA/.592 OPS in 32 games), Liván Soto (.333 average and .899 OPS in ten games) and Austin Slater (a .237 average and .677 OPS in 27 games).
Overall, they’ve been OK. The problem is, unexpectedly, the homegrown Orioles. Colton Cowser is hitting a limp .233 with a .666 OPS in September. Jackson Holliday was starting to find “it” in August, but is back down to a .135 average in September. MiLB big bopper Coby Mayo still doesn’t look ready to be an everyday major leaguer (.081 average in 16 games), although he’ll get there. Adley Rutschman has been a huge puzzle this year: he hit .322 over the month of April, .132 in July, and .204 recently in September.
Could the front office has anticipated this? I’d say no. You could accuse them of rushing Holliday and Mayo to the majors, but it’s true that the two youngsters really had crushed Triple-A pitching (Holliday with a .908 OPS, Mayo a .943 mark).
So is it just crappy luck? We may learn more about what’s eating everyday contributors like Cowser and Rutschman after the season ends; perhaps injuries are to blame. All we can say is, right now whatever the buttons the team is pushing, they ain’t working. Reinforcements should come soon, in the form of Westburg, scheduled to begin a Norfolk rehab assignment today, and Urías and Mountcastle scheduled to follow soon after.
It’s good to hear Mike Elias doing some soul searching after the latest downer month. Will it translate to different philosophies of roster and lineup construction? We’ll have to see what the last couple weeks of the season bring.
