The Orlando Magic were not much to look at offensively last year.
Paolo Banchero was a scoring monster and a defensive matchup nightmare. But the team’s lack of shooting and spacing, penchant for turnovers, and overall youth seemingly held the Magic back. They finished 22nd in the league in offensive rating at 112.9 points per 100 possessions, the worst mark of any team that made the postseason last year.
Orlando knows its success is tied to its defense. But as the playoffs revealed, the team still has to score.
That is not where the Magic put their offseason focus. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will help solve some of the shooting problems, but the Magic will look very similar to what they were last year. And that means improvement will come internally.
That will start with the biggest thing they can control. It will start with the one area the Magic excelled offensively.
Perusing every offensive number, the Magic find themselves near the bottom of the league rankings except in one area. Orlando was one of the best teams in the league at getting to the foul line.
But that comes with another realization. The Magic left a lot of points on the board. They were one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the league.
If the Magic aim to improve offensively this season, it has to start with the things they can control. And there is nothing the Magic can control more than their free throw shooting.
The Orlando Magic led the league in free throw attempts, but still left points on the board
The numbers are quite a thing to see.
The Orlando Magic led the league with a 28.7 percent free throw rate (the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts). They were second in the playoffs with a 29.9 free throw rate in their series with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
But the Magic were 26th in the league making only 75.9 percent of their free throws. The Magic missed 5.9 free throw attempts per game.
In the series with the Cavs, the Magic made 77.3 percent of their free throws and missed 5.7 free throw attempts per game. That was at least an improvement.
But considering how narrow the margins are to winning and losing, especially in the playoffs, every missed free throw feels big. Especially considering this is the one area where the Magic excel offensively.
The pressure to make free throws is real.
“The stuff that we can control is always frustrating when you don’t control it,” Cole Anthony (an 82.6-percent free throw shooter last year) said after the loss to the Warriors in March. “We just got to hit free throws. We’re getting to the line. That’s half the battle. I don’t think we’ve been struggling to get to the line all season. But, we’ve just got to lock in. Whether it’s the extra seconds, a deep breath or whatever it is. We just have to hit free throws. I’m guilty of it myself so I’ve got to work on it too.”
If the Magic are going to struggle to shoot, free throws are a way to stabilize the offense. It is a way to keep scoring points even when jumpers are not falling. It is hard to understate how important free throws are to this team.
They tip outcomes.
Take Game 1 of the series against the Cavaliers when the Magic missed 11 free throws—including a 4-for-8 showing from Paolo Banchero. In a series decided in seven games and an opening game where points were at a premium, each missed free throw stung more and more.
Or take the 8-for-18 showing in the February loss to the Atlanta Hawks, a game that was close until the middle of the third quarter and missed free throws only sent the Magic further behind. Or the 11-for-21 showing in the loss to the Golden State Warriors, a critical late-season loss during the Magic’s long homestand. That was followed by a 19-for-33 showing in a close loss to the LA Clippers.
“I can say that it’s a level of concentration,” coach Jamahl Mosley said after the loss to the Warriors. “Nobody steps to the free throw line, not thinking that they’re going to make the shot. They step in wanting to step in with confidence. Just need more concentration and knock them down.”
Orlando had 10 games where the team missed 10 or more free throws. That was not always decisive for a bad free throw performance—the team went 30 for 40 from the foul line in the December win over the New York Knicks, for instance. The Magic sometimes had so much volume from the foul line that misses did not hurt as much.
More than that, Orlando had 20 games shooting worse than 70 percent from the foul line and nine games shooting 65.0 percent or worse from the foul line. The Magic went 3-6 in those nine games. Free throw shooting is a big deal for this team.
Free throw shooting is a big area for Paolo Banchero to improve
The focus obviously starts with Paolo Banchero, who nearly transformed the Orlando Magic’s ability to get to the foul line completely on his own.
Banchero averaged 7.0 free throw attempts per game last year, 11th in the league overall. But among those 11 players, only Giannis Antetokounmpo shot worse from the foul line. Banchero made only 72.5 percent of his free throws. He missed an average of 1.9 free throw attempts per game.
That feels small, but his periods of missing free throws hurt the team (see his 4-for-8 showing in Game 1 where the Magic left a lot of points on the board).
Perhaps the biggest criticism of Banchero is his overall efficiency. Those who want to argue that Banchero’s scoring can be empty calories, his free throw shooting is a big part of it.
Banchero posted a 54.6 percent true shooting percentage last year (up from 52.9 percent in his rookie year). True shooting percentage takes into account free throw attempts to determine how a player’s scoring is actually comprised.
A good true shooting percentage is usually considered at 60 percent with 55 percent being average. Banchero is approaching that.
But if Banchero were to hit that 60 percent mark at his field goal and free throw attempt averages from last year, he would be averaging 24.8 points per game.
That illustrates that making free throws at a higher clip would greatly improve Banchero’s efficiency and put some of those questions to rest.
Banchero is not alone. But he sucks up a lot of the attention at the foul line.
The Magic got 85.0 percent free throw shooting on 4.4 attempts per game from Franz Wagner, the only other player on the roster to average more than two trips to the foul line per game. With Banchero carrying so much of the free throw load, his misses put pressure on everyone else to make all of their free throws.
Every miss matters. Some of those losses were indeed close. And free throws are, well, free.
If the Magic hope to improve offensively, it has to start with the things they can control.
They can control whether they make or miss free throws. It is the most controllable thing they can do (even if getting to the foul line is not wholly in their control, although the Magic should count on being one of the best teams at getting to the foul line while Banchero is around).
The little things that can improve this team are indeed internal. And it starts with being more consistent at the foul line individually and as a team.
