Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Performance on Sunday Was Only a Sneak Peek at Who He Could Be.
The Cubs finished the first half with an 8-3 victory on Sunday, highlighted by big games from Christopher Morel and Pete Crow-Armstrong. I want to focus on Crow-Armstrong for a few minutes because that game sent us into the intermission with reminders of many positive aspects of his skill set.
Pete Crow-Armstrong hit two home runs off of Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas Sunday, traveling a total of 814 feet. They were both on breaking pitches low and below the zone. This is important because it’s his first multi-homer game in the big leagues, but also because the double-tap was a drought-buster. Not since his first big-league hit back in April had he cleared the fences in an MLB game, prior to these two shots. Crow-Armstrong hit for power in the minors, but that pop hasn’t really translated to the majors. He also walked, making it back-to-back days taking a base on balls.
Entering Sunday, the rookie’s wRC+ was 48. His wRC+ for Sunday’s game was 708, so maybe he can keep that up for a whole season? Jokes aside, though, if he can manage an 80 or 90 wRC+ at the minimum, that’s awesome for the Cubs. Most of his value comes on defense; we have known this for quite some time. He made a few nice catches Sunday, too, and already has 6 Outs Above Average, according to Baseball Savant.
He’s fast and can steal bases, which adds even more value when thinking about putting him in the lineup. Crow-Armstrong is 17-for-17 when it comes to swiping bags. Whenever he reaches base, the first thought isn’t “Can he steal this base?”, but rather, “When is he going to steal this base?” That is unless he triples, although I have a feeling he’ll try to steal home before too long. Over the last two months, he’s taken off running on one of every eight pitches when he’s been on base with an open one in front of him, easily leading MLB in Go Rate.
When looking at what PCA can improve on, he needs to better his swing decisions. Even though he was able to drive them out of the park, the two breaking pitches that I mentioned earlier were well below the zone. If those are the pitches he swings at, the outcome will rarely be positive. His swing rate is in the 100th percentile, with a chase rate in the 99th percentile. The talent is there, but the swing choices are not. It could be mental, with a mindset that he has to do more than he really does to stay in the lineup. The other problem is that when PCA does make contact, it’s often not hit very well. The speed helps make up for some of this, but add some more exit velocity and he could become a problem at the plate.
Jed Hoyer seems to want Crow-Armstrong to be the center fielder of the future. Many scouts and pundits around the game have said that he is already the best defensive center fielder in baseball. Sunday’s game showed some of his offensive potential, but it’s clear that he won’t be hitting home runs every day. The speed is who he is, translating to his defense and baserunning, as well as helping with reaching first base on bunts. He’s 99th percentile in sprint speed, too, which always helps. Earlier in the series, he grounded out to Cardinals second baseman Nolan Gorman, who didn’t even have time to set his feet before throwing to first. Crow-Armstrong’s hustle creates chaos, and will certainly give him more opportunities to provide value than players with a lower motor would get.
Mike Tauchman returned on Friday, with Cody Bellinger returning sometime within the next few weeks, at least that’s the hope. This means that Pete Crow-Armstrong will receive less playing time as more players return from the Injured List, but I still think it’s important to start him at least four days a week in center field. Clearly, these are the only games he starts, as the main asset he provides at this point in his career is the defense. I would hate to send him down again, so another conversation that might need to be held is whether or not they trade an outfielder like Tauchman or Bellinger so that Crow-Armstrong doesn’t lose valuable time in the starting lineup.
