OU-Texas week is upon us, and that means the annual border war grudge match in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas between the two state universities in the neighboring states of Oklahoma and Texas.
Forty-one times since the introduction of the Associated Press college football poll in 1936 both Oklahoma and Texas have come into their annual rivalry classic ranked among the nation’s top 25 teams. That is the case again this year, with the Longhorns ranked No. 1 in both major weekly polls and the Sooners tied for 18th in the AP poll this week and 16th in the Coaches Poll.
Texas leads the overall series, which began in 1900, with a record of 63-51-5, but since 2000, Oklahoma is 17-8 against its longtime archrival, including a 34-30 upset win in last year’s game.
The top-ranked Longhorns (5-0) are two-touchdown favorites (plus-14) over Oklahoma (4-1) to win on Saturday. Although there have been double-digit favorites in this classic rivalry over the last 30 years, most have favored the crimson and cream.
There’s pretty strong reasoning behind the Texas being a heavy favorite in this year’s game. The Longhorns are extremely talented, deep and well-coached and playing well in all three phases of the game. They are one of just two teams (Ohio State is the other) that have won every game this season by more than 17 points. Disregarding the Sooners’ 51-3 blowout of hapless Temple to start the season. OU’s average margin of victory is just under 4.0 points per game.
Plus Oklahoma will be starting a true freshman at quarterback in the Red River Rivalry game for the first time in Sooner history and behind an offensive line that has been banged up and inconsistent through five games and in an offense that has been out of synch from the start.
But this is the Red River Rivalry and everything and anything goes. Records, rankings and odds mean next to nothing. So does that mean Oklahoma has a chance to defy the odds in this year’s matchup? The answer is yes, and there is historic evidence to support it.
There have been nine Red River games this century, including Saturday, in which one of the two teams was a double-digit favorite. Texas has been a double-digit favorite over the Sooners just twice since 2000. The other time this century that OU was a double-digit underdog to its archrival was in 2005. Texas, with Vince Young at quarterback, was a 14-point favorite and defeated Rhett Bomar and Oklahoma 45-12.
The Sooners are 1-2 historically against Texas as a double-digit underdog. The one Oklahoma victory in those three games came, ironically, in John Blake’s first season as the Sooners’ head coach, in 1996. OU started the season 0-4 that year and was a 20.5-point underdog to the No. 25 Longhorns. OU overcame a 24-13 deficit to pull off a highly improbable 30-27 win in overtime. That Oklahoma team would only win three games that season to and finished with a 3-8 record.
Of the now nine games this century in which there was a double-digit underdog, Oklahoma has been on the plus side in seven of them. Of those seven games when the Sooners were favored by double digits, they won five of them but failed to cover the spread in all seven.
So upsets are not uncommon in this classic rivalry series, but they generally don’t occur when one of the teams is favored by more than one score. That’s not to say, though, that those games aren’t close. And when you have a close game, the ball is more than capable of bouncing either way.
Texas has come into the Red River Rivalry game as the nation’s No. 1 team three different times in the history of the series (1946, 1964 and 1965). The Longhorns won all three of those contests. For what it’s worth. Oklahoma has been ranked No. 1 in nine Oklahoma-Texas games and come away the victor in seven of them.
One time in the 119-game history of the Oklahoma-Texas rivalry the two teams came in as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country. In 1963, in Bud Wilkinson’s final season as head coach of the Sooners, No. 2 Texas defeated No. 1 Oklahoma 28-7.
Upsets certainly do happen in college football, even improbable ones like Vanderbilt beating No. 1 Alabama last weekend. The ESPN computer give Texas an 87 percent chance to win against Oklahoma on Saturday.
If the Sooners are to win on Saturday, or even prevent Texas from covering the spread, they are probably going to have to do it with superlative defense and keeping it a low-scoring game. The problem is: Texas ranks among the top-10 teams in the country both in scoring offense and defense and in total offense as well as total defense.
Brent Venables had this to say in his weekly press conference this week about the Sooners’ opponent this weekend, “No weakness on paper…or on tape.” The pretty well sums up the challenge facing the Sooners.
Here are the eight games this century between Oklahoma and Texas with double-digit spreads (courtesy of The Oklahoman and the oddsshark.com data base) :
2019 — Oklahoma 34, Texas 27 (point spread: Oklahoma -10.5)
2016 — Oklahoma 45, Texas 40 (point spread: Oklahoma -13.5)
2015 — Texas 24, Oklahoma 17 (point spread: Oklahoma -16.5)
2014 — Oklahoma 31, Texas 26 (point spread: Oklahoma -16.5)
2013 — Texas 36, Oklahoma 20 (point spread: Oklahoma -13.5)
2011 — Oklahoma 55, Texas 17 (point spread: Oklahoma -11)
2007 — Oklahoma 28, Texas 21 (point spread: Oklahoma -12)
2005 — Texas 45, Oklahoma 12 (point spread: Texas -14)
