Victor Robles Profits From A Seattle Mariners Extension
With a change of scenery, Victor Robles transformed from unwanted to extended in just two months. His hot hitting since signing with the Seattle Mariners in June earned him a two-year, $9.75 million extension.
From his MLB debut in 2017 to his release on June 1, Robles had spent his entire career playing for the Washington Nationals, but had failed to make an impact at the plate. In 530 games with Washington, he batted .236/.311/.356 with an 81 OPS+, indicating that his offense was 19% worse than league-average. He joined the Mariners on June 4 and has hit .303/.372/.450 with a 140% over 42 games with his new ballclub.
At one time, Robles was considered among the games top prospects, garnering a consensus ranking in the top ten of all major prospect evaluators. He even rated above fellow Nationals outfield prospect Juan Soto at the time.
While his center field defense and baserunning have at times been elite, his bat never materialized. From 2019-2022, he posted the weakest average exit velocity among all qualified batters in MLB. His walk rate was usually below 5%—the MLB average is between 8% and 9%—and he struck out at a higher than average rate.
He hit much better in a small sample in 2023, but a back injury limited him to only 36 games and 123 plate appearances. The Nationals hardly gave him a chance in 2024—he went 3-25 with five walks—before giving up on him a few weeks after his 27th birthday.
The Mariners recognized Robles’ change in approach at the plate. His hard-hit rate jumped from 23.8% in 2022 to 31.2% this season and his average exit velocity is up form 84.6 mph to 86.4 mph. He’s drawing walks 8.3% of the time and striking out significantly less than he used to do. His power has improved from bottom-of-the-barrel to nearly league-average while he’s making better swing decisions and more high-quality contact. It’s extremely rare for a player to swing harder and decrease whiffs at the same time, but that’s what he has accomplished with his new organization.
Robles was set to reach free agency for the first time this offseason before the Nationals expedited that process when they released him. He is earning $2.6 million this season, but the team didn’t even think it was worthwhile to keep him on the roster at that reasonable amount. He signed a prorated minimum contract for $740,000 with Seattle, and at the time it looked like he would be unlikely to find a major-league deal at all this winter. Now, he can bank on nearly $10 million and at least two more years on a guaranteed contract.
While his speed and defense are no longer elite, he’s still better than average in both facets of the game. Julio RodrÃguez is the Mariners’ center fielder for the foreseeable future, but Robles can play either of the corners and provide cover for RodrÃguez in case of an injury. Even if his hot hitting cools down, he should be a solid fourth outfielder at the least. If his new hitting approach is here to stay, Seattle may have found their long-term leadoff hitter at a cut-rate price.
