Heading into the top of the sixth of Friday night’s game against the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns seemed to have all his ducks in a row to execute a flawless trade deadline.
His team has stormed back into the Wild Card race over the lasts two months, where they have the best record in baseball going 33-17 over a 50-game span. Friday night, the Mets welcomed back their ace Kodai Senga, activating him off the IL in time to start a game against the Atlanta Braves with the chance to move past them in the standings for the first time this season.
Senga allowed two early runs, but was then handed a huge lead by his offense, which piled on seven runs against Charlie Morton off three home runs. Senga ended each of the first five innings with a strikeout, as fans brimmed with anticipation of seeing the Mets move into the first Wild Card spot.
Then, in the top of the sixth inning and in pure Metsian fashion, Senga pulled his calf running off the mound to avoid a pop up and went down in a heap with a strained calf. MRI results revealed that Senga suffered a high-grade strain, and just like that he was returned to the 60-day IL and out for the rest of the regular season.
There is still hope that the Mets can get Senga back to pitch meaningful innings in October, but that can’t be banked on as any setback from an 8-10 timetable will really due him in for the year. The Mets got this far without Senga, but the job is not done with 59 games left in the season.
State of the Mets Rotation at the Deadline
The Mets did grab second place in the NL East for one fleeting moment on Friday, but they gave that half-game lead right back to the Braves on Saturday, with Tylor Megill making his first start back in the rotation after getting promoted from Triple-A.
Megill was replacing Christian Scott in the rotation, as the Mets top pitching prospect went on the IL earlier last week with a strained UCL. Considering Scott’s importance to the Mets long-term, they will not take this injury lightly, so there is no guarantee that he will contribute again this season.
Scott and Senga were supposed to provide the Mets rotation with the upside that a trade deadline acquisition would have presented down the stretch, but now both of those high-upside options are off the table. This bring the Mets back to the five starters who have taken the most turns for them this year.
| Mets Rotation | GS | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 |
| 1. Luis Severino | 20 | 120.2 | 3.58 | 7.01 | 3.13 |
| 2. Sean Manaea | 20 | 106.0 | 3.74 | 8.58 | 3.82 |
| 3. Jose Quintana | 20 | 107.1 | 4.02 | 7.13 | 3.27 |
| 4. David Peterson | 10 | 53.2 | 3.52 | 7.21 | 3.27 |
| 5. Tylor Megill | 9 | 45.0 | 5.20 | 10.60 | 4.20 |
Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and David Peterson are all locks to remain in this rotation for the rest of the season barring injury, as they have been the constants over the past 50 games for the Mets. Megill however was already the odd-man out once, and could very well be again soon.
The Mets have Joey Lucchesi in Triple-A, although he’s no longer on the 40-man roster. Top pitching prospects Mike Vasil and Dom Hamel have spent enough time in Triple-A that they can be considered rotation depth, but neither has thrived at the current level they are at.
Really the only other intriguing internal option to be the Mets fifth starter over Megill is Jose Butto, but the 26-year-old has been thriving lately in a bullpen role. In seven starts earlier in the season, Butto pitched to a 3.08 ERA in 38 innings pitched.
After being sent down to Triple-A when both Megill and Peterson returned off the IL midseason, Butto was called on to help the Mets struggling bullpen on July 2nd. Since then, he has allowed just one run on a solo homer across seven relief appearances and 13 2/3 innings pitched.
Butto has a 0.66 ERA as a relief pitcher, with batters hitting just .075/.178/.150 against him, as he has racked up 17 strikeouts and walked only five. The biggest decision Stearns likely has to make at this year’s deadline is how to utilize Butto for the rest of this season.
Long-term, the Mets may have a quality starter in Butto, but he has become so indispensable to New York’s bullpen that it is most likely that he remains there for the rest of the season. This means that the Mets biggest area of need at the deadline has likely shifted away from the bullpen and into the starting rotation.
If they do look to add a starter at the deadline, which pitcher is the best fit and how much would the Mets be willing to put on the table to get a deal done?
Today, I am going to explore three different levels of trades to address the Mets rotation needs, where we will be using mock trades to distinguish what Stearns may be comfortable with giving up to make a run this season.
Landing a Frontline Starting Pitcher
If the New York Mets are serious about this season, they would be looking straight the top of the trade market and trying to swing a deal for one of the two true aces that are on the table at the trade deadline.
Candidates: LHP Blake Snell, LHP Garrett Crochet
Barring an unforeseen trade of Tarik Skubal, the two best pitchers who could potentially be on the move are Blake Snell and Garrett Crochet and each comes with some major flight risk that makes a deal very tricky to pull off.
For Snell, you are talking about trading for a pitcher who signed a one-and-one free agent deal in the offseason, with every intention of testing his market again in 2025.
Snell has not pitched well enough up to this point to warrant walking away from a $30 million player option in 2025, but he did just strike out career-high 15 batters, both improving his trade stock and showing that he still has time left to salvage his season.
The Giants are not too far out of the Wild Card race, sitting 3.5 games back of the Mets for the final playoff spot. There is every chance that San Francisco just decides to ride this thing out, especially as Robbie Ray has made his season debut, giving the Giants a potent top three of All-Star Logan Webb, plus Snell and Ray.
To land Snell, the Mets – or any team – would have to trade a significant return of prospects that is too good for Farhan Zaidi to pass up. The same is true for the Chicago White Sox with their ace Crochet.
Crochet is currently in the Cy Young conversation in the American League, and he still has two years of team control beyond this season. The White Sox don’t have to trade him, but considering his injury history and massive innings jump, they would be wise to deal him if the right package came across at the deadline.
Where things have gotten complicated lately is the statement from Crochet’s representatives that he will not pitch in a October unless given a contract extension. The Mets could certainly afford to pay him, but having to do so makes him a far-less attractive trade chip.
Ultimately, the Mets are going to have to part with significant prospects to land either Snell or Crochet. Because Snell is a rental, the Mets can probably land him without dealing from the top five prospects in their system, whereas the same might not be true with Crochet.
Here’s a potential package that could net the Mets Blake Snell in a trade:
San Francisco Giants receive: IF/OF Luisangel Acuña, RHP Blade Tidwell
New York Mets receive: LHP Blake Snell
Luisangel Acuña checks in at No. 73 on our top 100, making him the headlining piece of this deal. Last year, the Mets traded Max Scherzer in a similar situation to land Acuña in a deal that was a straight-up one-for-one swap. Like Snell, Scherzer had a player option for the following season, but the Rangers required him to pick up the option in order to complete the trade.
If the Giants were a motivated seller and no other teams were aggressively pursuing him, there is a world were Acuña alone would be enough again to add Snell since he is likely a rental. At the same time, Acuña hasn’t set the world on fire in Triple-A this season, and the Giants can make every excuse to simply ride things out to see what happens.
Including Blade Tidwell in this deal probably makes it too rich for Stearns, as Tidwell could probably be considered the third-best arm in the Mets system behind Scott and Brandon Sproat.
The 23-year-old former second round pick pitched to a 2.41 ERA in seven games spent in Double-A to start the season. Since coming up to Triple-A, Tidwell has a 5.56 ERA in 46 1/3 innings pitched as he struggles to adjust to the top minor league level.
Still, Tidwell is a high probability big league pitcher, who could be a high-leverage relief pitcher if he can’t put it altogether as a starter. Acuña is very similar as a top position player prospect, as his athleticism, defense and speed give him all the tools of a great utility man, who has the potential to play every day if the hit tool can be more consistent.
Acquiring a Quality Starter with Two Years of Control
If the New York Mets are going to give up a significant prospect return at this year’s deadline, there is a good chance they will look to add a pitcher with multiple years of controls.
Looking at the first two trades the Mets have made during deadline week, each of them were for rentals in reliever Ryne Stanek and outfielder Jesse Winker. But the returns to acquire those two players were marginal, as they dealt prospects that were comfortably out of the top-15 in their system. If the Mets are going to trade from their top-15, it will likely be for a pitcher who is under control for at least 2025, beyond just this stretch run in 2024.
Candidates: RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Zack Littell
The one pitcher of the above list that the Mets have been linked to is Erick Fedde, who has also been linked to seemingly contender in the race over the past month. This is because Fedde signed a two-year, $15 million deal with the Chicago White Sox this offseason, which has immediately become one of the best contracts in baseball.
Fedde has taken the ball every fifth day for the White Sox and has posted a fantastic season up to this point. The fact that the White Sox are clearly in sell mode, Fedde represents their easiest chip to cash in at the deadline.
Beyond Fedde, Cal Quantrill and Zack Littell are a pair of right-handers who are in the midst of strong seasons on teams who could look to sell at the deadline. The Rockies clearly should sell, although we never know if they are actually going to pull the trigger on deals or not.
Quantrill is one of the few pitchers who has figured out how to survive pitching at altitude, which is not something they will give up lightly when they can always wait to trade him at next year’s deadline. Still, he is probably their best trade chip if they decide to sell.
Meanwhile the Rays have been the most aggressive seller at the deadline so far, and have a nice little trade chip in Littell. Claimed off of waivers last season, Littell thrived in a swingman role in 2023, pitching to a 3.93 ERA across 87 innings pitched.
Due to injuries in the Rays rotation, Littell has taken a rotation spot every fifth day and has thrown the ball very well across a career-high 114 innings pitched. With the Rays starting to get some of their pitchers coming off the IL, they can afford to cash in on Littell at his peak value thanks to his durability and control through 2025.
| rotation targets | GS | IP | QS | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 |
| 1. Erick Fedde | 21 | 121.2 | 10 | 3.11 | 7.99 | 2.52 |
| 2. Cal Quantrill | 21 | 114.1 | 12 | 4.09 | 6.77 | 3.16 |
| 3. Zack Littell | 21 | 114.0 | 8 | 4.18 | 8.29 | 1.74 |
Looking at the stats above, it is pretty clear that Fedde is having the best season and a bidding war for his services is sure to drive up the cost in terms of prospects it will take to land him.
Quantrill and Littell should have very similar value, although Quantrill’s name probably carries a bit more weight since he has a longer track record of success.
Return for Fedde: IF/OF Acuña, RHP Nolan McLean, SS Jeremy Rodriguez
Return for Quantrill/Littell: RHP McLean, SS Rodriguez
Now creating mock trades is an inexact science, but my logic behind the above packages is based on the perceived market that each of these players possesses. The White Sox have a handful of teams on the hook for Fedde, so there is every chance they can land a top-100 prospect in a deal for him.
That is why I mocked Acuña to them, along with some high upside prospects in McLean and Rodriguez. McLean was a two-way player in college, and did both for a bit this season as well.
Having recently focused solely on pitching, McLean is an athletic guy who still has a lot of upside. In seven starts in High-A, he pitched to a 2.57 ERA. That ERA has nearly doubled in Double-A, where he has pitched to a 5.10 ERA. McLean is a hard-thrower who generates a lot of spin, so even if he can’t stick as starter, he has a big league future as a live bullpen arm.
Meanwhile Rodriguez is a prospect who the Mets acquired for Tommy Pham last season, who has put up solid numbers so far in the FCL, while wowing scouts with some of his tools. A package of McLean and Rodriguez should be attractive enough to get the Mets some pitching help at the deadline, whether it’s a starting pitcher or a top reliever.
Considering how close the production has been between Fedde, Quantrill and Littell when it comes to starts, innings pitched and quality starts, the Mets may be best served trading for Littell or Quantrill, who would require less of a prospect return.
Bargain Bin Shopping
If the New York Mets really don’t want to sacrifice their future at the deadline, they can look towards some cheaper rental arms who won’t cost multiple prospects to land.
Candidates: RHP Michael Lorenzen, LHP Yusei Kikuchi
Michael Lorenzen and Yusei Kikuchi are each entering free agency after this season, and are not part of the long-term future of their current club. Lorenzen has better actual numbers with a 3.81 ERA, but his underling numbers of a 4.72 xERA and 5.15 FIP paint him as a regression candidate.
Kikuchi is the opposite, where his 4.75 ERA is worse than this expected ERA of 3.98, or his FIP of 3.64. The return for either of these pitchers should not cost much more than what it took to acquire Winker, which was a pitching prospect who was a fringe top-20 prospect in their system.
The Mets need to make sure they add some depth at the deadline, but ideally they would swing a trade for a Fedde, Quantrill or Littell type. Only time will tell what the Mets decide to do, but they have some options to play with and over 24 hours to figure it out.
