With Scottie Barnes signing a max rookie extension on July 6th, which will trigger next summer, the Toronto Raptors are suddenly on the clock to make a move.
With starting point guard Immanuel Quickley a restricted free agent this summer, his new deal will trigger as soon as he signs it, which – more than likely – will also be on July 6th after the end of the NBA’s moratorium.
Assuming Quickley gets a 25% max, and Barnes starts next year on a 30% max if he makes All-NBA, that’s a large chunk of cap space that’s suddenly evaporated from Toronto’s books, and that’s baking in the 10% cap increase coming next year, which will – to be fair – lower Quickley’s cap percentage.
The point remains, however. With both Quickley and Barnes locked in on big deals, navigating those waters, in order to get better, does get tricky.
That is, of course, unless Toronto gets out ahead of it this very summer.
But, how to do that? RJ Barrett is also on the books. As will Bruce Brown be when the Raptors pick up his option.
(Toronto doesn’t intend to keep Brown, but rather trade him so they get a return.)
Is Barrett that third guy next to Barnes and Quickley? If so, that seems like a trio with a pretty set ceiling. It’s certainly not a team that’s expected to make many Finals runs, unless all three of them level up, and rather significantly.
So, what’s the play? How do they find that third player, who can help catapult them into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference?
One possible solution, which would also help their cap sheet, is to loop in the Houston Rockets, who are simply dying to jump at the chance of accelerating their rebuild.
It’s heavily speculated that Houston is willing to relinquish multiple young assets to get their star player.
The Raptors could make an open-ended pitch to Houston, and offer to sweeten the pot for any team holding a star that’s of Houston’s interest. Say, for example, the Miami Heat who is rumored to be open to shopping Jimmy Butler.
The Heat are known for not bottoming out. They have no desire to tank for draft picks. They likely would be more interested in getting Brown and Barrett from Toronto, than, say, Jalen Green or Jabari Smith from the Rockets.
The Raptors could inform Houston, that they’d help facilitate such an arrangement, for the cost of Green, Tari Eason, and Dillon Brooks for salary matching purposes, while also shipping out future draft capital to Miami in order to align value for Butler.
(In this scenario, the Rockets would also fork over draft compensation to Miami.)
Essentially, for Toronto, adding the contract of Brooks is indirectly the necessary add-on to get their young core into the fold.
Miami gets younger, but not so young they can’t stay competitive, and they get a haul of draft selections for their troubles.
Houston gets their target, in Butler, who will replace Brooks and Green and become the team’s clear-cut star.
Toronto will walk away with Green, and Eason, who will become part of the new core for the Raptors moving forward, and both of whom will cost a lot of money to retain.
The challenge of doing a similar trade next summer is the pending restricted free agency of Green, which will complicate matters. Furthermore, by then Houston will likely have moved on a star. If not Butler, then someone else.
Here, the Raptors get Green a year before a new contract is going to trigger, and a year before they even have to deal with a rookie extension to Eason.
Is such a deal perfect? No, not by a long shot. Each team will likely wish to make a few substitutions, and perhaps add more picks to align value.
But at the very least, the Raptors help provide the Heat with players who can play right now, which we know the organization prefers, with Houston aligning value via draft compensation.
Miami may never tank for draft picks, but they don’t turn them down when given to them in trades.
Houston gets their star, even if adding Butler at his age seems like it’s too little, top late. But that’s their prerogative, and of no business to Toronto.
Is a core of Barnes, Quickley, Green, and Eason a sure-fire Eastern Conference contender? Maybe not, but it’s a strong foundation of which the Raptors can build something on. They could even try to flip Brooks to a contender down the line, perhaps getting another young piece in return.
(Do note that the above involved player contracts comes short, on behalf of the Rockets, by a little more than $500,000 in order to be legal. So the Rockets will need to send something else Toronto’s way, before they’re allowed to take on Butler’s enormous cap hit. That could be Jock Landale, who the Raptors could view as an expiring for next season.)
The overarching point here is, that now might be a good time to strike, if you’re the Raptors.
